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Author Topic: Cognitive Biases  (Read 739 times)
Sargon
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #45 on: November 05, 2017, 08:12:39 pm »

Ahh, this actually make some sense.
Though World government is the one most prone to corruption and tyranny of the majority.

Yea, basically I agree people SHOULD behave better. I am not sure it has hope though.
It's also a matter of game theory.

While some people are evil, some people are altruistic but most are opportunistic.
So the opportunistic would go with whatever benefits them, whether it's the right or bad thing to do.
I am not sure if this kind of behaviour is acquired or you are born with.
Some people would like to say children are like a blank slate, but it's not true.
Children are born with different personalities and abilities, this might prove "educating people" will never actually work.

For instance, there is now DNA diet. Which is fitting the diet according to your DNA. If your DNA can determine which diet is best for you, why can't your DNA determine other cognitive things?

So, I agree most people are opportunistic and not very kind. I am just not sure any amount of ideology or effort can easily solve this though.
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Zanthius
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #46 on: November 05, 2017, 08:50:38 pm »

Children are born with different personalities and abilities, this might prove "educating people" will never actually work.

Well, lets say that 70% of your personality is determined by your genes, while only 30% of your personality is determined by your upbringing. Still. those 30% can mean a lot. Here are some estimates of genetic influences in different personality traits:

Quote
Openness has 57% genetic influence
Conscientiousness has 49% genetic influence
Extraversion has 54% genetic influence
Agreeableness has 42% genetic influence
Neuroticism has 48% genetic influence

https://www.scienceofpeople.com/much-personality-genetic/

A few hundred years ago most people were illiterate. Today, most people are literate. In some countries children speak 2-3 languages when they are 4 years old. In other countries, people speak only their mother tongue when they are 4 years old.  A baby is not a blank slate, but a baby can develop very differently depending on what it is exposed to during childhood.

« Last Edit: November 05, 2017, 09:00:09 pm by Zanthius » Logged
Sargon
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #47 on: November 05, 2017, 09:37:42 pm »

It's more like... babies who don't have proper conditions don't fulfill their potential, but they are born with this potential.
But I think a 2 years old infant already have a very defined unique personality.
Think that the child brains starts to develop before it's even born.
But yea, if a child is being abused in his first 2 years of life, he will develop very poorly.

There is a regression in literacy and intelligence in the last 200 years though.
The reason is that natural selection based on looks might converge to a lower(yet still higher than without it) IQ.
200 years ago your chances of survival and bringing children were very dependent on your intelligence.
Now you don't really need to be very intelligent to survive and have children. It's more random or based on physical attraction.

Again, you need to think about it as a game theory.
In a game theory, certain conditions lead to certain results.
Does the world we live today makes the "kind people" "win"?
If the conditions are good, few kind people can turn into the majority.
If the conditions are bad, even a society with mostly kind people will regress into a less kind society.

You need the right conditions.
There isn't a very big reward for being intelligent or kind nowadays.
If a kind person is surrounded with a lot of nasty people, he might turn himself into a nasty person as well.

So that starting point is that most people are selfish, nasty and opportunist.
How can you make the kind people manifest?
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Zanthius
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #48 on: November 05, 2017, 09:42:59 pm »

There is a regression in literacy and intelligence in the last 200 years though.



https://ourworldindata.org/literacy/
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Sargon
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #49 on: November 05, 2017, 09:47:44 pm »

There is a regression in the West though, but 3rd world countries do have more literate people.
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Zanthius
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #50 on: November 05, 2017, 09:49:47 pm »

There is a regression in the West though, but 3rd world countries do have more literate people.

Can you please provide evidence for your assertions. I seriously doubt that there is regression in western Europe/USA, but if there is, it would be great if you provided me with evidence.
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Sargon
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #51 on: November 05, 2017, 09:57:58 pm »

https://www.pri.org/stories/2013-05-25/western-iqs-drop-14-points-last-century-study-says

I saw the counter argument is the Flynn effect, but that includes the entire world. The IQ in the entire world might be rising, but it's getting lower in the West.
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Zanthius
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #52 on: November 05, 2017, 10:20:25 pm »

https://www.pri.org/stories/2013-05-25/western-iqs-drop-14-points-last-century-study-says

I saw the counter argument is the Flynn effect, but that includes the entire world. The IQ in the entire world might be rising, but it's getting lower in the West.

That is about IQ, not literacy, but I think this is highly controversial. Here is from a review article written 3 years after the one you gave me:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289616300198

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In the present study, we must emphasize that even though we identified several studies showing a decline in IQ, there is currently still a much larger pool of studies showing an increase in IQ. For example, Flynn (2012) has reported a positive Flynn Effect in the USA among adults between 1995 and 2001 of 3.06 points per decade, when comparing the WISC III and the WISC IV. Among US children, between 1989 and 2001, he reports a rise of 3.36 points per decade based on the same tests. Moreover, in their recent meta-analysis, Pietschnig and Voracek (2015) confirmed the 3 points per decade average increase in IQ. Therefore, it is imperative to discuss our negative Flynn Effects in the light of the positive Flynn Effects findings in the literature.

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There are a number of limitations to this analysis. Ideally, in order to establish and understand the causes of the negative Flynn Effect, we need large samples, annual cohorts over a longer period of time, and, where possible, the ability to rule out potential confounding factors such as sex and immigration. We only have this for Finland and, to a lesser extent, Denmark and Norway. Here, we have, from the military conscript data, samples which are almost the entire male population of a certain age, year-on-year. The impact of immigration is likely to be very small, as we have seen, and this is especially so in the case of Finland. Ideally, we would need more samples of this quality and also female samples of this quality as it is possible that the negative Flynn Effect is working at a different rate among females. A second limitation can be found in our ability to test hypotheses as to the possible causes of the negative Flynn Effect. As discussed, some of these data have had to be drawn upon because they are the best that we have. Also, because a negative Flynn Effect has only been found in a small number of countries, we are left with a limitation of power, leaving it difficult to have confidence in any correlational finding in this study. In some cases, such as the immigration correlation, it raises the question of whether the correlation reflects immigration causing a country to have a negative Flynn Effect or whether countries that are more developed, and so have a negative Flynn Effect, are more likely to have high levels of immigration.

Also, IQ is determined to a large degree by genetics (around 75%), while many other personality traits are determined to a larger degree by culture and upbringing. I don't necessarily think people will get a much higher IQ with a better educational system, but they might get more informed and mentally healthy.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2017, 10:51:12 pm by Zanthius » Logged
Scalare
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #53 on: November 08, 2017, 06:38:02 pm »

It's more like... babies who don't have proper conditions don't fulfill their potential, but they are born with this potential.
But I think a 2 years old infant already have a very defined unique personality.
Think that the child brains starts to develop before it's even born.
But yea, if a child is being abused in his first 2 years of life, he will develop very poorly.

There is a regression in literacy and intelligence in the last 200 years though.
The reason is that natural selection based on looks might converge to a lower(yet still higher than without it) IQ.
200 years ago your chances of survival and bringing children were very dependent on your intelligence.
Now you don't really need to be very intelligent to survive and have children. It's more random or based on physical attraction.

Again, you need to think about it as a game theory.
In a game theory, certain conditions lead to certain results.
Does the world we live today makes the "kind people" "win"?
If the conditions are good, few kind people can turn into the majority.
If the conditions are bad, even a society with mostly kind people will regress into a less kind society.

You need the right conditions.
There isn't a very big reward for being intelligent or kind nowadays.
If a kind person is surrounded with a lot of nasty people, he might turn himself into a nasty person as well.

So that starting point is that most people are selfish, nasty and opportunist.
How can you make the kind people manifest?


I think they are manifested by the women choosing to be with 'bad guys' rather than with 'kind guys'.
This will make them have babies which are less kind, resulting in a society which is genetically less kind.
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Zanthius
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #54 on: November 08, 2017, 08:25:54 pm »

I think they are manifested by the women choosing to be with 'bad guys' rather than with 'kind guys'.
This will make them have babies which are less kind, resulting in a society which is genetically less kind.

I am not convinced that this tendency very large. I think more women are interested in choosing wealthy guys, although I think most women would be happy with a guy that does his share of housework, and has a stable work situation with a decent income. In general, I think it might be harder for a woman to find a decent guy, than for a guy to find a decent woman. Women are much more centered around the mean, while guys have a much higher standard deviation. This doesn't just seem to be related to IQ, but to behavior in general.



Like for example, some feminists argue that most business leaders are men, and use this to argue that our society is unfair. But there are also more men in prison....

When you look only upon one side of the spectrum, it is actually selecton bias.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2017, 09:31:25 pm by Zanthius » Logged
Zanthius
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #55 on: November 08, 2017, 11:30:12 pm »

I have added this bias to my page now. I guess this makes Sargon happy.



http://www.archania.org/common_biases_we_need_to_understand.html
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Death 999
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #56 on: November 09, 2017, 11:17:40 pm »

Thank you for putting that 'if' in there - it is not entirely clear that this is actually the case. It is plausible and has a non-overwhelming degree of evidentiary support. Also, there's not so much need for it to be IQ. There are several things it could be.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2017, 11:19:39 pm by Death 999 » Logged
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