The Ur-Quan Masters Home Page Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 21, 2018, 01:21:42 pm
Home Help Search Login Register
News: UQM development migrated from Subversion to Git

+  The Ur-Quan Masters Discussion Forum
|-+  The Ur-Quan Masters Re-Release
| |-+  Starbase Café (Moderators: Michael Martin, fossil, Lukipela)
| | |-+  Cognitive Biases
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 [5] Print
Author Topic: Cognitive Biases  (Read 1262 times)
Zanthius
Enlightened
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 672



View Profile
Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #60 on: January 06, 2018, 11:23:55 am »

I am currently writing about regression to the mean:



http://www.archania.org/biases/
« Last Edit: January 06, 2018, 07:30:05 pm by Zanthius » Logged
Zanthius
Enlightened
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 672



View Profile
Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #61 on: January 11, 2018, 09:45:48 pm »

Here is an article about something I read about in Kahneman's book:

Experts vs. Dart-Throwing Chimps



https://investingcaffeine.com/2012/07/08/experts-vs-dart-throwing-chimps/
Logged
Zanthius
Enlightened
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 672



View Profile
Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #62 on: January 24, 2018, 11:39:34 pm »

I just added this bias based upon research by Daniel Kahneman:

Quote
Overvalued and undervalued probabilities
We usually believe too much in things that have very low probabilities of occurring, since there is a possibility for these things to occur. This is why people buy lottery tickets. They focus upon that it is possible, even though it is very unlikely. Similarly, people often do not believe sufficiently in very high probabilities, since they do not feel certain. This is why people often buy expensive insurances. So that they can feel safe, even for very unlikely occurrences.



http://www.archania.org/biases/

Also, I found a course about Behavioral Finance at coursera (https://es.coursera.org/learn/duke-behavioral-finance), which seems to be related to prospect theory which Daniel Kahneman got the nobel prize in economics for.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2018, 11:52:36 pm by Zanthius » Logged
Death 999
Global Moderator
Enlightened
*****
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 3662


We did. You did. Yes we can. No.


View Profile
Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #63 on: January 25, 2018, 04:50:03 pm »

The opposite problem on high probabilities is more common. People are much more overconfident on likely things than they are underconfident.
Logged
Zanthius
Enlightened
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 672



View Profile
Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #64 on: January 25, 2018, 05:47:42 pm »

The opposite problem on high probabilities is more common. People are much more overconfident on likely things than they are underconfident.

This isn't just my opinion. This is based upon tons of research by Daniel Kahneman and various other people. Anyhow, he wrote that people tend to either ignore the problem completely, or they tend to overvalue the problem if they affirm it at all. And there are lots of examples; like paying for expensive insurances, being scared of flying, or being scared of terrorists.

Here is a wikipedia article about the "Certainty effect": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certainty_effect

You can also read more abot it here: https://sites.google.com/site/skepticalmedicine//poor-decisions-and-prospect-theory

And here is the original publication by Kahneman and Tversky: https://www.uzh.ch/cmsssl/suz/dam/jcr:ffffffff-fad3-547b-ffff-ffffe54d58af/10.18_kahneman_tversky_81.pdf

I think what you are refering to might be the pseudocertainty effect, which is to completely ignore the element of uncertainity: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudocertainty_effect

I kinda agree with you that this is highly prevalent, but people don't necessarily need to feel certain about probable things. They can also feel certain about rather unlikely scenarios, such as is given in many religions. I am definately going to write more about the pseudocertainty effect.

I also found this bias which is closley linked to this:

Quote
The neglect of probability, a type of cognitive bias, is the tendency to disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty and is one simple way in which people regularly violate the normative rules for decision making. Small risks are typically either neglected entirely or hugely overrated. The continuum between the extremes is ignored. The term probability neglect was coined by Cass Sunstein.[1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neglect_of_probability
« Last Edit: January 25, 2018, 08:25:31 pm by Zanthius » Logged
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 [5] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!