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Author Topic: Cognitive Biases  (Read 1810 times)
Zanthius
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #60 on: January 06, 2018, 11:23:55 am »

I am currently writing about regression to the mean:



http://www.archania.org/biases/
« Last Edit: January 06, 2018, 07:30:05 pm by Zanthius » Logged
Zanthius
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #61 on: January 11, 2018, 09:45:48 pm »

Here is an article about something I read about in Kahneman's book:

Experts vs. Dart-Throwing Chimps



https://investingcaffeine.com/2012/07/08/experts-vs-dart-throwing-chimps/
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Zanthius
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #62 on: January 24, 2018, 11:39:34 pm »

I just added this bias based upon research by Daniel Kahneman:

Quote
Overvalued and undervalued probabilities
We usually believe too much in things that have very low probabilities of occurring, since there is a possibility for these things to occur. This is why people buy lottery tickets. They focus upon that it is possible, even though it is very unlikely. Similarly, people often do not believe sufficiently in very high probabilities, since they do not feel certain. This is why people often buy expensive insurances. So that they can feel safe, even for very unlikely occurrences.



http://www.archania.org/biases/

Also, I found a course about Behavioral Finance at coursera (https://es.coursera.org/learn/duke-behavioral-finance), which seems to be related to prospect theory which Daniel Kahneman got the nobel prize in economics for.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2018, 11:52:36 pm by Zanthius » Logged
Death 999
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #63 on: January 25, 2018, 04:50:03 pm »

The opposite problem on high probabilities is more common. People are much more overconfident on likely things than they are underconfident.
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Zanthius
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #64 on: January 25, 2018, 05:47:42 pm »

The opposite problem on high probabilities is more common. People are much more overconfident on likely things than they are underconfident.

This isn't just my opinion. This is based upon tons of research by Daniel Kahneman and various other people. Anyhow, he wrote that people tend to either ignore the problem completely, or they tend to overvalue the problem if they affirm it at all. And there are lots of examples; like paying for expensive insurances, being scared of flying, or being scared of terrorists.

Here is a wikipedia article about the "Certainty effect": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certainty_effect

You can also read more abot it here: https://sites.google.com/site/skepticalmedicine//poor-decisions-and-prospect-theory

And here is the original publication by Kahneman and Tversky: https://www.uzh.ch/cmsssl/suz/dam/jcr:ffffffff-fad3-547b-ffff-ffffe54d58af/10.18_kahneman_tversky_81.pdf

I think what you are refering to might be the pseudocertainty effect, which is to completely ignore the element of uncertainity: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudocertainty_effect

I kinda agree with you that this is highly prevalent, but people don't necessarily need to feel certain about probable things. They can also feel certain about rather unlikely scenarios, such as is given in many religions. I am definately going to write more about the pseudocertainty effect.

I also found this bias which is closley linked to this:

Quote
The neglect of probability, a type of cognitive bias, is the tendency to disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty and is one simple way in which people regularly violate the normative rules for decision making. Small risks are typically either neglected entirely or hugely overrated. The continuum between the extremes is ignored. The term probability neglect was coined by Cass Sunstein.[1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neglect_of_probability
« Last Edit: January 25, 2018, 08:25:31 pm by Zanthius » Logged
Zanthius
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #65 on: April 29, 2018, 11:12:51 am »

I have added two more biases:



https://www.archania.org/biases/#The_straw_man_fallacy
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Death 999
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #66 on: April 29, 2018, 02:18:08 pm »

For example, Black Lives Matter was somehow taken to mean that white lives don't. wtf no.
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Deus Siddis
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #67 on: April 29, 2018, 06:32:47 pm »

For example, Black Lives Matter was somehow taken to mean that white lives don't. wtf no.

That may be because the statistics for how many whites are killed by police in the USA was/is ignored by the movement's argumentation. More whites were/are killed by police. The counter argument to that was that proportionately, more blacks are killed by police than whites, but that counter argument is itself countered by considering the crime statistics showing blacks commit more crimes than whites proportionately and so naturally would end up in more violent encounters with police proportionately.

So Black Lives Matter can reasonably appear to only care about or disproportionately care about black lives (and this issue runs deeper than a misinterpretation of its name).
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Death 999
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #68 on: April 29, 2018, 07:01:57 pm »

It's still a massive stretch.
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Zanthius
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #69 on: April 29, 2018, 07:59:21 pm »

So Black Lives Matter can reasonably appear to only care about or disproportionately care about black lives (and this issue runs deeper than a misinterpretation of its name).

Nice to see you again Deus Siddis. I remember arguing with you before I got banned from here many years ago.

I would rather join an organization called: "All lives matter", but I guess it is okay to make a group called "Black Lives matter", since that seems to be something worthy to focus upon right now. The problem with organizations like that, is that things can change in the future, and the only good thing to focus upon in this aspect forever seems to be that "All lives matter". And that might even include animal lives, for example in order to preserve biodiversity.

Anyhow. It is a fallacy to say that people announcing that they care about one thing, necessarily don't care about other things. The organziation is not called "Only black lives matter", as far as I know.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2018, 08:30:50 pm by Zanthius » Logged
Deus Siddis
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #70 on: April 29, 2018, 09:02:25 pm »

It's still a massive stretch.

I agree that assuming the name by itself implied such a thing is a massive stretch.

But at a deeper layer than the name, if the very rationale for the movement depends on filtering the facts such that only black lives are considered and white lives are ignored, then I can understand how people would associate that bias with the name.

Nice to see you again Deus Siddis. I remember arguing with you before I got banned from here many years ago.

Hah, old times! Well your new subject matter is considerably more interesting and diverse than the many dissertations on multicellular diatoms. Cheesy

I guess it is okay to make a group called "Black Lives matter"

I do not think the name was poorly chosen, either. "Black Lives Matter", "White Genocide", etc. succeed at grabbing attention and focusing it on the issue those who created the name feel is real and important. America is a big and noisy place, so maybe without at least some implied hyperbole an issue will never float to the surface of people's political awareness.
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Zanthius
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Re: Cognitive Biases
« Reply #71 on: April 29, 2018, 09:34:08 pm »

Hah, old times! Well your new subject matter is considerably more interesting and diverse than the many dissertations on multicellular diatoms. Cheesy

Juffo-Wup acknowledges the existence of un-Voidable Non
when we are faced with such, we join, absorb and wait for our opportunity
to learn the weakness that will allow us to Void the Non.
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