The Ur-Quan Masters Discussion Forum

I've heard it referenced in a few threads here, but a curosry search of the boards reveals nothing illuminating.  What were they, and is there a link to the original removed lines?

From what I remember, its the way you know theres a time limit. The Melnorme trader had aquired the metachrone, and it changed colour depending on its fate. But then it suddenly turned black, and from this Greenish determined that this part of the galaxy only had 4 years left.

:)

Ah, Tsing... Our resident lurking quote-bot... :)

For any future quote-searching needs, I recommend using this page:
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I was just thinking about the metachron before. If it turns black when it will be destroyed in the current timeline then it really shouldn't matter if the Melnorme leaves. I mean him leaving must be a part of the timeline too?

No, the MetaChron alerts of dangers that will come if you remain in the same place - it doesn't predict the imminence of its demise, but the imminence of its demise if some action is not taken.
It's very unscientifical, but that's it.

I believe that one is missing a few dialogues..

http://www.sa-matra.net/quotes/ should contain everything that there is.. Plus it looks better :D

Ah, if I think of it, it's scientifically possible in this Star Control-like system:

Everyone has a soul/something that does not obey standard natural laws and constitutes the free will of that individual.
The MetaChron predicts its demise if no such a free will intervenes (by projecting its "tendrils" into the future).

However, the actions of free will may move the Universe from one timeline to another, rendering the MetaChron's prediction obsolete (since it applied only to that specific timeline).

Perhaps, but isn't the Ur-Quan's free will the reason for its demise?

Another explanation is that the Metachron is estimating the probability of destruction in the current location (within some period of time into the future) based on e.g. amount of destroyed ships in the area or some similar estimate of danger that would clearly increase if the Kohr-Ah take over the place. Taking individuals or Precursor vessels into account would be much harder to do, anyway, and they probably wouldn't figure into this calculation.

If you mean the Ur-Quan Kohr-Ah, yes. But a free will that has already been established - cleansing all sentience is a decision they had took long ago, back in the times of officer Kohr-Ah, from whom their name comes.
So the Universe is already in that timeline for a long time.

No, because the real probability is 0% (or extremely small) until February 2159, and 99.99% in February 2159. It doesn't increase gradually.

I think the device calculates the time-to-destruction if the device stays in the same place. I don't
think it has anything to do with free-will or potential time-lines, the device could be much
more simple than that. The quote from Greenish suggests the device's shade depends on
its location.

Then why doesn't it predict your attack on the Inevitably Successful in All Circumstances?
I mean, the Trader shouldn't be in Alpha Centauri anymore if Greenish knew that you are going to attack him.

A possible argument for your explanation would be that you learn of the MetaChron's existence only after you can't attack Greenish anymore. If you choose to attack him, then it means that the MetaChron doesn't exist. (so there are two storylines: Greenish survives and the MetaChron exists AND Greenish is dead and the MetaChron never existed).

However, you can retreat from the fight with Greenish and apologize. And after a while, you'll learn about the MetaChron.
So this is not a valid argument.

Sure it does, though it is probably a more abrupt transition than the one it actually takes. The Metachron, presumably, should start to rapidly darken immediately after the Kohr-Ah win the Doctrinal Conflict (because that would be when the Kohr-Ah begin actively searching out targets for cleansing, which presumably includes the Melnorme). The fact that it does darken much more gradually seems to indicate what a number of people have said already, that the Metachron accurately predicts its demise only if no action is taken.

There are a few things to note here:

• The probability of destruction in the near future (e.g. "this month") may change rapidly like Valaggar says, but longer-term probabilities (e.g. "this decade") change more slowly.
• The Metachron (probably) isn't omniscient, so it's just estimating probabilities. It's unclear what it's basing its estimates on, but my guess is that it's gathering information on large-scale death and destruction and politics (not hard to do if you're an eavesdropping device on a Melnorme Trader vessel!) and using this to estimate ("Current threats to Melnorme Traders: only the Kohr-Ah. Estimated Kohr-Ah presence in the sector: (increasing function of time, based on Kohr-Ah success in Doctrinal War). Estimated chance of discovery and destruction by Kohr-Ah: (increasing function of time). Chance of surviving the next 10 years, assuming we stay on a Melnorme Trader ship and risks to Traders develop as estimated: (not very good)."). These estimates rely heavily on guesses on what the Kohr-Ah are going to do if they win their war, but it doesn't take Precursor technology to predict that (with or without the Sa-Matra), a large rampaging fleet of Kohr-Ah is bad news for everyone.
• The darkening of the Metachron doesn't need to be linear to the destruction probability estimate; in fact, to be useful as a warning system, it should darken noticeably for, say, 5 % chances of destruction. This also improves the Metachron's chances of existing, as its chances of surviving a millennium at 5 % chance of getting blown up in the next 10 years are pretty bad (less than 1 % at a quick estimate).

And that's just assuming the Metachron does what we're told it does. For all we know, it could just be measuring how afraid people around it are that they're going to die. :)

This would make the MetaChron a simple calculator device.
While the simpler (and naturally encountered) Tzo Crystals are able to predict things by vibrating? (see quote:
Your arrival was predicted by our Tzo crystal's vibrations.
We already know why you are here and what you need from us; however
etiquette requires that we act as though we are ignorant of your desires.)

For the MetaChron to be so unique as Greenish says (we Melnorme have found many strange and interesting alien artifacts.
One of these devices is the MetaChron, a kind of trans-time alarm system. ) it has to be even more special than Tzo Crystals.

Of course you could argue that the ways through it gathers information are the special, mysterious part of the MetaChron... but then it's a bit too powerful. The Melnorme would then find a way to extract all information it gathers, for sure, since they're so keen on Precursor technology.
And they have "a thousand secret sources in space and time", not just one.
Plus, they won't reveal them to you for anything but a charge which would bring our species in debt for centuries.

Also, it is a "trans-time alarm system". This would indeed mean that it actually gathers information for the future.
And "But if we are proceeding along a timeline which will eventually result in the destruction of the MetaChron
the unit slowly darkens. Presumably, it will be destroyed at the same time as it turns completely black."
You see - just what I said with the timeline.
Also, why would it predict the exact date (February 2159) if it just estimates the probability?

Wasn't that something the Melnorme extrapolated from the rate of darkening, anyway?

Yes it was. They said that the MetaChron will turn completely black on February 2159, which is just the exact date.

No, it is a valid argument because if you attacked Greenish and retreated then the device
is still intact. So when he gets around to telling you about it, you didn't destroy it.

Also, you're making the assumption that if you attack and kill Greenish, then the Metachron
didn't work. But what if Greenish hadn't gotten around to figuring out how it worked yet?

I said that, if you kill Greenish, it means that the MetaChron didn't even exist. Never ever in the game's universe.

If, instead, you retreat from the fight and apologize, it means that the MetaChron didn't predict anything because you weren't going to destroy it. (if you kill Greenish, then the MetaChron was, instead, at another Melnorme Trader, the one who'll tell you about the MetaChron)

Yes, it may be that Greenish hasn't yet figured to use the device, of course.

Maybe if you kill Greenish, the MetaChron flies out into space instead of being destroyed.

It may have existed, but they didn't know what its function was. Or, as you said,
might be with another trader.

Actually, the Melnorme refer to the "early part of the year 2159"; they want to leave in January/February. In any case, all that means is that the MetaChron is predicting the Kohr-Ah victory (in a few years' time) with an accuracy on the order of a month. I find it reasonably plausible that the MetaChron could work that out from, say, data on the distribution (and destruction rate) of Ur-Quan ships (something the Melnorme are sure to have access to).

As I said, the probability explanation doesn't work - why then will the MetaChron be destroyed only when it turns completely black (probability_of_destruction=100%)?
Why wouldn't it be destroyed sooner, for example?

Rather, it is a bit outside of time, so all the MetaChron's moments of existence are known to the named artifact. So it knows the time of its destruction and gradually darkens, its darkest color (black) indicating its demise.
This only applies if the MetaChron stays in the same place. So the explanation would be simple.

If it can detect its impending short-term destruction (as in noticing that the ship it is on being shot at!), its probability estimate of destruction within the prediction window will instantly shoot up, converging on 100 % when it is sure of its destruction. Conversely, in most scenarios I can think of in which it is not going to be destroyed within the next hour or so, there are pretty good chances of avoiding that fate, that the probability is noticeably less than 100 %.

It knows its time of destruction under what set of assumptions/future circumstances? Obviously not the "real" future, or it wouldn't darken like that in a timeline where Zelnick will stop the Kohr-Ah. The "same place" part is a bit problematic, too, considering that Melnorme tend to move around quite a bit (although "in the same general region of space" might be good enough). I don't know whether that explanation is any simpler, and it certainly assumes a lot about what you can do with *time* (although, considering some other stuff hinted at by both Orz and Arilou, that could fit right into the UQM universe).

But in the MetaChron case the shown probability increases gradually, however the device is destroyed only near 100%. When there are good chances that it's destroyed at around 50-70%.

Ah, now I remember why I used that multiple timelines hypothesis.
At least of that we can be sure (if we don't follow the probability explanation): you can change the timeline - presumably, anyone can, by a drastic intervention. Something exceptional.

I figured it darkened to converge to black on the time it would have been destroyed had it malfunctioned and remained white.

That could work: have it display its time-to-death in an alternate timeline forking from the current one but with the difference that the MetaChron is white (in other words, how long does it take for the user to get himself and the MetaChron blown up if he thinks that can't happen to him?). That works: if the Melnorme rely on the MetaChron to keep them out of trouble, they'd probably hang around our part of space despite the Kohr-Ah victory and get nailed by a passing Marauder in February 2159 or so (give or take a month).

That also elegantly explains 3DO SC2/UQM: it reflects a timeline created by the MetaChron in which the Melnorme don't get a warning and therefore see no need to warn Zelnick. For every time PC SC2 is played, a corresponding game of 3DO SC2 or UQM has to be played. Well, I think we have enough timelines to put the MetaChron back in now (not that temporal order really matters; after all PC SC2 used the MetaChron before 3DO SC2 produced the requisite alternate timelines).

However, I see a small problem with this theory: how come the alternate timeline involved always seems to have the Kohr-Ah death march in 2159, considering that Zelnick (if he survives that long) usually sics the Utwig and Supox on the Kohr-Ah setting them back a year? The only explanation I can think of is that in the majority of timelines, Zelnick dies before that...

Maybe if you send the Supox and Utwig to fight the Ur-Quan, the
device slows its darkening, or lightens a bit, but you never hear about it
from the traders?

My point was that it would have to be lighter even before you send them, unless the warned/not warned change is enough to change whether you send them or not.

And my point was that the Supox and Utwig, by using their decision (coming from their free will) to attack the Kohr-Ah, move the Universe to another timeline, in which Greenish's death is one year later.

Then, of course, YOU come and shift the timeline to one in which the MetaChron's destruction is further away in time.

I was assuming that the MetaChron takes these decisions into account. Free will isn't, most of the time, anyway.

Perhaps the Metachron is "unaware" of the Supox and Utwig influence on the timeline, because their decision to attack was motivated by the Ultron, which is presumably a much more powerful artifact. Perhaps the Metachron cannot predict how more powerful artifacts than itself can influence the timeline.

Yes, you can change the "free will" with the Ultron.
But, then, if the Melnorme knew that the premonitions of the MetaChron can't be avoided unless a more powerful device intervenes (and they don't believe the Ultron to be anything but a fake device - see "(As if it ever worked)") they would have lain down and accepted their fate, not plan to leave the area.
No, the MetaChron's predictions can be avoided easier.