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Resh Aleph
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How does the New Alliance win the war?
« on: February 19, 2009, 10:32:43 pm »

With the state of the New Alliance, I can't really see it winning the second war even with the Sa-Matra gone:


The Chenjesu, Mmrnmhrm and Earthling fleets were presumably all but destroyed in the first war, with them unable to rebuild the fleets. I mean, slave-shielded worlds are under supervision, right? So where would all the Avatars come from?

The Yehat just had a civil war, and the UQM probably didn't allow them to build a massive fleet.

The Syreen just had a war with the Mycon (with what ships were left from the first war).

The Utwig and Supox were sort of the first phase of the second war, but their fleets were defeated.

The Shofixti were only just "reborn" so they can't possibly have a large fleet yet.

The ZFP wouldn't really help even if they did have a large fleet. Tongue

I'm not sure if the Pkunk and Orz would actually care to join the war. I mean, unlike the Utwig/Supox, they only gave the Captain a few ships (and ships designs) rather than fight themselves. The Pkunk just had quite a nasty war anyway.


So we have the Arilou, reduced Yehat, remnants of the Syreen/Utwig/Supox, tiny ZFP/Shofixti fleets, and possibly Pkunk/Orz. That doesn't seem to cut it against a huge fleet of Marauders and Dreadnoughts, backed by the VUX and Umgah (who are at full strength IIRC) and what's left of Mycon/Thraddash/Ilwrath.

Here's a thought: the Chmmr didn't know what was going on outside, right? So they might've assumed they had to fight against the UQ Hierarchy all by themselves. That means they had to build an insanely massive fleet of Avatars, without the UQM noticing it. So perhaps they did just that, with scan blocking or something.

And so the second war was won all thanks to Chmmr, with just a little help from their friends.


... or not. Tongue What do you guys think? (I suppose this has this been discussed before, hasn't it?  Undecided)
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Re: How does the New Alliance win the war?
« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2009, 12:46:39 am »

My guess is that the Alliance victory was heavily contingent on the Ur-Quan and Kohr-Ah fleets being thrown into chaos after the Sa-Matra's destruction. Perhaps several high ranking officials (ie Lord 1 & and the Primat) were killed in the explosion. They also probably blamed each other and began to fight a total war, as opposed to a war within a predefined set of rules. The resulting destruction gave the Alliance the opening they needed to topple their empire.


Just a guess though.
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Re: How does the New Alliance win the war?
« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2009, 12:49:13 am »

I agree with you that the Ur-Quan situation seems a lot more bleak than many people might think.

In some respects, its not as bad as you were alluding to. If I recall correctly, didn't the Chmrr give you infinite resources after you freed them from the slave shield? It seems that they were willing and more than ready to hunt the Ur-Quan once they were freed. Also, perhaps these machine beings can quickly process resources.

We know from the end cutscene that Earth had been building ships under the slave shield. Perhaps they had been building Earthling Cruisers for last 20 years? Who knows how hope survives under the slave shield. At the very least, Zelnick could have signalled them from the ship (or Hayes) in 2155, a couple of years before the Battle of the Sa Matra.

Perhaps the explosion of the Utwig bomb wiped out a large portion of the Ur-Quan and Kohr-Ah fleet in a similar manner as the Shofixti bomb did.

Even if this is true, it is, as you say, a case of devastation among the New Alliance. Perhaps there was also political distruption among the Hierarchy - witness the defection of the Spathi, Yehat, and so on, along with the loss of the Sa Matra and Ur-Quan ships. Perhaps other members of the Hierarchy, such as the Mycon, no longer regard the Ur-Quan as an inevitability. Just when the Ur-Quan need their thralls the most, they are deserting. Perhps they continue their fratricidal war with the Kohr-Ah while they are under attack from all sides.

But it seems as if it would be a long, hard fight. Maybe subduing the Ur-Quan would be part of a sequel, relying on the talents of the Captain.
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Re: How does the New Alliance win the war?
« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2009, 08:31:53 am »

I always considered the battles after the destruction of the Sa-Matra more of a rout than a war, really. The Chmmr have obviously been stockpiling a massive amount of resources and ships under their slave shield to prepare for their emergence, seeing as how they happily donate and effectively infinite supply of resources to your cause for the final assault. In addition, you have several strong allied fleets to support them: while the Utwig, Supox, ZoqFotPik, Yehat, and Pkunk fleets have been reduced due to their battles during the course of the game, all still have sizable numbers of ships and seem more than willing to put their wweight behind a final push to defeat the Ur-Quan and Kohr-Ah. The Orz have a powerful fleet basically untouched by war, and seem to be more than happy to help you once you ally with them. The Shofixti probably do not have all that sizable a fleet, but they must have at least a slightly significant quantity of ships; it's not likely that Tanaka would have room to raise an entire species worth of offspring inside his tiny vessel, so they must have found a way to produce ships and make it to the starbase somehow. The Syreen and Human fleets are likely insignificant by comparison to their allies, but would undoubtedly join the battle. The Arilou would probably not be willing to participate in battle in any significant capacity, but may be willing to spare some combat groups, or provide critical backup at convenient and unexpected times.

Compare this with the state of the Hierarchy and the Kohr-Ah. Their trump card has just been obliterated by a surgical strike, and they have simultaneously learned that there are sentient Dnyarri in existence once again. Both the Kzer-Za and Kohr-Ah are likely in a panic, and may possibly be infighting or desperately trying to protect themselves against psychic compulsion that is no longer a threat. If the Kzer-Za have even thought to attempt to summon their battle thralls, they're likely in for a rude surprise. The majority of them have either been wiped out (Androsynth, Ilwrath, Thraddash), have sealed themselves away from contact (Spathi), or defected to the Alliance already (Yehat). Of the remaining 3 races, they're not likely to get significant backup from any: The Mycon are too pragmatic, and the VUX too self-serving, to attempt to break through the combined Alliance fleet to try to aid their (former) masters. The Umgah might try it as a joke, but are equally likely to defect to the Alliance for humor's sake instead, and even if they did come to the Ur-Quan's aid, they would be easily wiped out by the Alliance rear guard before they could make a difference. The Ur-Quan and Kohr-Ah are confused, demoralized, possibly panicking, and definitely surrounded by foes, most of whom are out for some payback.

Let's be honest, the Ur-Quan are pretty much doomed.
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Re: How does the New Alliance win the war?
« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2009, 11:45:54 am »

We know from the end cutscene that Earth had been building ships under the slave shield.

Oh, we do? Forgive my ignorance, I assumed the UQM would monitor such developments (which was my case against the Chmmr having a large fleet of Avatars).


As for the Ur-Quan, I don't think they would act erratically as some of you suggested. Let's not forget they're one of the most ancient races around. They're elite. I always assumed they'd join forces against the Alliance. Granted, following the Doctrinal Conflict their fleets are much smaller than what they used to be (especially the losing Kzer-Za), but together they're still the dominant force in the neighborhood. I also don't believe that the Mycon, VUX and Umgah would turn against their Masters just yet.

... unless we assume that the Doctrinal Conflict was very close to an end when the bomb went off, in which case there is almost nothing left of the Kzer-Za fleet. Then the Battle Thralls may well join the Alliance, which would only really have to worry about the Kohr-Ah fleet. Add the (secretly built?) Avatars and Cruisers to the mix and the Alliance wins.  \o/
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Re: How does the New Alliance win the war?
« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2009, 03:30:22 pm »

An interesting question, the answer -I think- should be retrieved by looking at the Old Alliance versus Hierarchy war, which -as many things suggested- was a fairly matched war, the Hierarchy just barely winning, yet overpowering the Chenjesu and Mmrnmhrm forces when they brought the Sa-Matra in for battle.

Let's look at the old war's sides (active participants), and what they became of at the end of SC2:

ALLIANCE:
    * Humans (slaveshielded, freed at the end)
    * Yehat (split in half due to rebellion)
    * Arilou
    * Syreen (mostly decimated)
    * Shofixti (mostly decimated)
    * Chenjesu (dead -> chmmr)
    * Mmrnmhrm (dead -> chmmr)

HIERARCHY:
    * Mycon (mostly decimated by Syeen forces)
    * Spathi (slaveshielded themselves)
    * Androsynth (dead/vanished)
    * VUX (ZEX dead; not powerful at all anymore (the game suggests that they were as powerful as they were solely due to ZEX))
    * Ilwrath (dead)
    * Umgah

So, even though both sides lost a lot of things, the Kzer-Za got decimated party by the Kohr-Ah, and they lost the Sa-Matra and pretty much all of their battle thralls (Thraddash dead, Umgah might defect to the New Alliance, VUX still loyal but weak, Mycon might defect / become neutral)... The New Alliance has lost a lot of things, too, but they also gained the Orz, Supox, Utwig, Pkunk (blended in with the Yehat) and the all-powerful Chmmr.

Aditionally, the game -at least to me- gave the impression that the Human war factories were rather great, allowing for a large force to be built up in no time at all. Though it is possible that some of these factories were destroyed or dismantled during the Slaveshielded period, the Chmmr 'lots of resources' thing and their new technologies might've made these plants produce cruisers (perhaps even advanced cruisers!) quicker, thus bringing the Earthling forces back in the game. They might've also done this to other New Alliance members (Yehat and Shofixti first due to their proximity to Procyon and their involvement in the Ur-Quan slave war, Supox and Utwig later on).

And again, the Kzer-Za are weak, the Kohr-Ah have also been weakened, and the Sa-Matra that seemingly made the 'final push' against the Old Alliance (read: Chenjesu and Mmrnmhrm) is gone now.

Also, don't underestimate the power of the Chmmr Avatar. These ships were made specifically to destroy Dreadnoughts, and they are probably quite good against Marauders, too..
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Re: How does the New Alliance win the war?
« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2009, 04:12:07 pm »

The Ur-Quan clearly had very little presence outside of their sphere. And Earth was extremely poorly monitored. The Spathi all fled, leaving Fwiffo hiding on Pluto. The Ilwrath left in order to hunt down the Pkunk. And the Ur-Quan had not caught any of this over the period of 20 years or so. If Earth was building cruisers, nobody was paying attention.

One wonders about Ur-Quan demoralization
-the Sa-Matra was destroyed in a treacherous sneak attack
-their thralls fail to respond to the call
-some of their thralls have betrayed them
-they had to face another Dynaari
-the Kzer-Za appear to have been wrong in their strategy
-new races, such as the Utwig and the Supox, are attacking them
-the Chejensu and Mrrnhrrmm are back and more powerful than ever before
-it was lowly "inferior" races that did this to them

On the other hand, all this could just make them angrier!

I guess it rests on how many cruisers the humans were able to build on the slave shield, whether the Umgah betray them and join the alliance, if the VUX and Mycon stay out of it, how much forces the Yehat/Pkunk are able to bring to bear, and if the Arilou intercept Ur-Quan communications as suggested in Timewarp. Most importantly, how many cruisers have the Chmrr built, and how quickly are they able to build new ones. There is a possibility that these numbers are impressive. (though don't ask me how they managed to build all these ships before even becoming the Chmrr!)

If the Ur-Quan continued their doctrinal conflict in a confused or haphazard manner, it is possible that small groups of Supox, Utwig, etc... could have isolated pockets of Ur-Quan, picked them off, and moved onto the next group.

There is still a lot of Ur-Quan ships left to destroy, however.

It was pointed out that the Alliance and the Hierarchy were nearly matched in the first war, with the tide turned by the Sa Matra.

So you have to ask yourself, how does it fare this time, with the Ur-Quan weakened, most Hierarchy thralls unavailable, and with most Alliance races weakened.

Then, how does morale, leadership, and organization factor in?

It seems like it could be a bitter conflict. The "feel" you get from the end cutscene and other clues is that the Chmrr provided strong leadership to the New Alliance, that they were very powerful and able to mobilize resources very quickly, that even the humans pitched in and were ready for a fight, and the Alliance races were finally mobilizing to deal with the Ur-Quan.

EDIT: Without ZEX, the VUX would have been pushovers, at least according to the Yehat. So they would likely stay out of the conflict or be rolled over quickly.
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Re: How does the New Alliance win the war?
« Reply #7 on: February 20, 2009, 10:38:49 pm »

The Ur-Quan clearly had very little presence outside of their sphere.

But that was just because of the Doctrinal Conflict, wasn't it? Would Earth risk annihilation in case the UQM return? Could they even communicate with the starbase? I really don't remember much of the trivia. Embarrassed


Anyway, here's my new theory of how things happened: the Chmmr must've planned to secretly build a ridiculously huge fleet of Avatars underground, so they'd be able to face the Hierarchy and the Sa-Matra pretty much alone. The process was interrupted prematurely, so perhaps they didn't have a ridiculously huge fleet yet, but it didn't matter: the Sa-Matra was no more and the Kzer-Za were nearly crushed. Following the Chmmr's first offensive, and having learned of the Kzer-Za's imminent defeat, the remaining Battle Thralls quickly decided to become neutral, and that was the end of the Hierarchy.

The only real threat now was the Kohr-Ah fleet, but it too lost much of its past glory. And so, with considerable support from the New Alliance (chiefly the Yehat), the Chmmr were able to destroy the combined Ur-Quan forces once and for all.  \o/


... until they rebuild their armies in some other corner of space. Undecided
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Re: How does the New Alliance win the war?
« Reply #8 on: February 20, 2009, 11:06:46 pm »

Yeah, you need a hyperwave caster to communicate through a slave shield, so I guess Earth was not in contact with the Starbase. Hayes mentioned looking up through the red glow of the slave shield. I wonder if they can see the sky and the stars? Perhaps not, though you can see the landmasses from orbit. It could be a two-way mirror effect.

The Doctrinal Conflict certainly kept the Ur-Quan busy and away. Humans would have been at great risk in the long-run had they been building starships. That's why I was so surprised at the end to hear of human starships lifting off. Perhaps TFB are trying to tell us something about the nature of humanity?

You certainly got the impression at the end of the game that a new era had dawned, and the Ur-Quan were on the run at least.
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Re: How does the New Alliance win the war?
« Reply #9 on: February 20, 2009, 11:09:12 pm »

I'm not sure if the Pkunk and Orz would actually care to join the war.

The Pkunk and Orz are not eager to join in? The Orz do not see the loss of an individual *finger* as death, carry on about how fun *dancing* is and give you their ship design for nothing. The Orz probably love war. And the Pkunk? The Pkunk show up at Delta Crateris as reinforcements for a surprise attack on the Sa-Matra before the proper war has even begun.
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Re: How does the New Alliance win the war?
« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2009, 12:11:00 am »

The Pkunk and Orz are not eager to join in?

Actually, the Pkunk obviously are, as a part of the Yehat... Lips Sealed

Still not sure about the Orz though. They didn't wage war on the Kohr-Ah like the Utwig/Supox did. And they're not exactly the most predictable race around.
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Re: How does the New Alliance win the war?
« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2009, 12:29:06 am »

Still not sure about the Orz though. They didn't wage war on the Kohr-Ah like the Utwig/Supox did.
Yeah, I think Zelnick 'forgot' to ask them about that little favour, there being more pressing matters around such as, just as an example, the mysterious and total disappearance of an entire genetic offshoot of humanity. Also  their sphere of influence is tiny as it is, there's not much room for Utwig and Supox-style shrinkage whilst still being able to fit Vulpeculae inside.

If the conversation option had existed to get them to go and kick Kohr-Ah ass, I think they would have gladly gone to war FOREVER. Nemesi are probably extensions of Them just as much as the people inside are, so if they're the aggressors they probably can't actually lose a war as long as They can keep pushing *fingers* through.
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Re: How does the New Alliance win the war?
« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2009, 10:34:28 pm »

Hmm, I'll start with the 1st war. This is mostly guesswork though Wink
And I apologize for the long, long post Lips Sealed

Alliance

Chenjesu - technologically quite advanced (I think it was mentioned that theirs was most advanced in Alliance). They didn't have a war fleet before the war, rather probably mostly just scout and mining ships... when the UQ came, they started mass-producing Broodhomes. During the war they probably had the 2nd strongest fleet in the Alliance.

Mmrnmhrm - technology not far behind Chenjesu, in some respects probably even further ahead. Their robotic nature may give them unique benefits (an excellent, intuitive (?) understanding of computers and other machines, ultra-fast reaction time etc.). 3rd strongest fleet in Alliance. Downside - their numbers are limited, and a dead Mmrnmhrm cannot be replaced!

Earthling - started building their fleet late, with relatively primitive technology. Small fleet. According to the game, their greatest contribution is industry. High population means a large workforce, and fast production of war goods/ships. This is especially helpful to the Syreen, who basically have no industry of their own.

Syreen - extremely low population would likely make them very weak... their psionic abilities made them slightly stronger, but still relatively weak. Their contribution is rather limited.

Yehat - the largest and most powerful fleet in the alliance. The only Alliance race who had a large war fleet even before the war. IIRC they were pretty much the only race to conduct successful offensives against the Hierarchy races (especially VUX).

Shofixti - technologically primitive and just starting to build their fleet in the beginning of the war. Their greatest strength are their numbers. Fought alongside the Yehat, making these two more than a match for the VUX and Mycon.

Arilou - technologically highly developed, and possibly very powerful... however, they weren't too willing to help, which made them of limited use.

Hierarchy

Ur-Quan Kzer-Za - they came into this quadrant fully prepared for war, having good technology and a massive fleet dwarfing all the other races. Subjugating the thralls meant they had to fight them, which caused an unknown number of casualties to the UQ themselves. Conquering the Spathi, Ilwrath, Umgah, Thraddash and Mycon was a piece of cake. The strongest fight was put up by the Androsynth, and the VUX may have done some damage. The Ur-Quan soon took a rather large sphere of territory, giving them access to vast mineral wealth.
We also need to take into account the Ur-Quan's experience. They have been fighting other races for 20,000 years, seeing much more combat than any other race... they are the only real war veterans.

Umgah - militarily rather weak originally, and even weaker after fighting the Ur-Quan. They would likely only cause minor damage to Chenjesu and Mmrnmhrm forces.

Ilwrath - had no starfleet prior to the war. The technologically most primitive of all races. Contribution same as with Umgah.

Spathi - now they could possibly be a VERY strong addition to the Hierarchy! A large starfleet which surrendered almost immediately to the UQ (which means that the Spathi suffered only a few casualties), technological genius (bronze age -> atomic age in what, 100 or 300 years?!?!) and, if we take Fwiffo seriously, procreational ability rivaling the Shofixti (not in speed, but rather an insane amount of children). Their huge potential is limited by two things:

1. they left Spathiwa, which possibly means they lost access to vast resources and infrastructure. Still, colonizing other worlds may alleviate this problem.
2. they are abject cowards. If the Spathi fleet actually engaged the Alliance, things might look very differently. But, the Spathi had a tendency not to show up in battle, or to flee very quickly.

Androsynth - among the Thralls, they are a powerhouse! So, we have humans with increased health and intelligence. Their technological genius could prove a real help, as well as their organizational skills and discipline (I assume this). They lost their fleet fighting the UQ, but apparently could rebuild quickly enough to become quite formidable. They are based in the Vulpeculae stars, meaning great mineral wealth!
Also, the Androsynth's good understanding of humans could possibly be of help to the Hierarchy. Maybe they can even send spies to the Earthlings, giving them valuable insight into the Alliance's affairs.

VUX - I guess they had a moderate-strength fleet before the war, but it got obliterated by the Ur-Quan when they conquered the VUX. Also, the war had already started by that time, so the VUX were left with very little to defend with against the Yehat. The VUX remnants would have been defeated there and then, but ZEX's genius managed to save the day as he became the main VUX commander. This, as well as possible Ur-Quan and Mycon reinforcements, gave them enough time to rebuild their fleet and push back the Yehat & Shofixti forces.

Mycon - their fleet wasn't overly impressive, but they joined the UQ willingly which meant they didn't suffer any losses from them. The first Mycon offensive may have been aimed to save the VUX's collective ass-equivalents from the Alliance during the first phases of the war.

Thraddash - pretty much insignificant. They didn't fight in the war, but they may have aided the Hierarchy indirectly, with minerals and other supplies.

Short summary:

Alliance:
2 strong races (Chenjesu, Yehat)
3 medium races (Mmrnmhrm, Earthling, Shofixti)
2 weak races (Syreen, Arilou)

+ they mostly fought defensively, meaning the Hierarchy attacked fortified systems. Also, the Alliance's supply lines are shorter (though this might not be too relevant in Hyperspace).
- unprepared for war (except maybe Yehat)

Hierarchy:
1 very strong race (Kzer-Za)
1 strong race (Androsynth)
3 medium races (Spathi, Mycon, VUX)
2 weak races (Ilwrath, Umgah)

+ more territory (greater mineral wealth)
- damage to thrall fleets during their subjugation by the Ur-Quan
- possible low morale/motivation issues (Spathi, Androsynth, Umgah?)


Put this way, it seems to confirm the fact that the Hierarchy had a slight advantage over the Alliance.

Now, let's compare this with the SC2 situation...


Alliance

Chmmr - their racial abilities are unknown...
Apparently they started building a new fleet immediately after being slave-shielded. It seems to me that the new Chmmr fleet is actually stronger than the old Chenjesu and Mmrnmhrm fleets put together... also, they have apparently thoroughly mined Procyon II, giving them vast resources. They have the largest and most battle-ready fleet in the New Alliance.

Earthling - they built an unknown (though probably not large) number of cruisers under the slave shield. They are weaker than during the first war, this also depending on the economical impact of the UQ bombardment, slave shield and isolation.

Syreen - same as before (low impact)

Yehat - their fleet had some losses during the Hierarchy war, but thanks to the Queen's surrender they remained relatively low. The civil war is a potentially strong blow, but the Pkunk reunion helps balance this. Therefore, the Yehat would remain relatively strong, though not nearly as much as the Chmmr.

Shofixti - devastated. Their numbers are too low to be of any significant aid.

Arilou - I have no idea. Would they even help? If they would, their contribution would probably remain relatively low.

Orz - again, I have no clear idea. Maybe they would help, maybe not. 'They' still haven't fully come to this dimension, so the Orz may not be particularly strong yet... but there's too little info to tell for sure.

Zoq-Fot-Pik - devastated. They are militarily extremely weak, and their best hope of contribution might be making Alpha Tucanae a base of operations for the Alliance in the Ur-Quan sphere.

Thraddash - devastated, maybe even extinct. In no position to help at all.

Utwig - they had a rather powerful fleet, which has been reduced in their attack on the Kohr-Ah. However, the attack was probably worth it if we consider the Kohr-Ah losses. If the size of the Utwig sphere of influence is any indication, they might still be able to help, though not as much as the Chmmr or Yehat.
The Utwig's high level of technology should also be considered.

Supox - their offensive against the Kohr-Ah left them too weak to continue fighting.

Pkunk - see Yehat.

As you can see, the Alliance is not in good shape (except the Chmmr). But as bad as that seems, the Hierarchy is looking even worse.

Hierarchy

Kzer-Za - a far cry from the pre-war era:
1. their war with the Alliance has caused significant Dreadnought losses. I think mineral depletion at least is not an issue thanks to their vast territory.
2. the Shofixti sacrifice has caused VERY significant Dreadnought losses (30% of the entire fleet!).
3. Finally, in this weakened state they get to fight the Kohr-Ah (who are probably nearly unscathed from their cleansings). Depending on the time of the Sa-Matra's destruction, the Kzer-Za fleet is either weak or (if the Kohr-Ah won the Doctrinal conflict) nearly wiped out. The ZFP reports make it quite clear that the Kzer-Za are in very bad shape.
Conclusion: with the added loss of the Sa-Matra, the Kzer-Za are in no shape to fight the Alliance... possibly even without the Chmmr.

Umgah - stronger than during the first war, but their generally pathetic ship design makes them a likely pushover. There's also the possibility they'll defect if they see the Kzer-Za are about to lose.

Ilwrath - devastated, thanks to the Thraddash. If they're still alive they probably can't even wipe out the ZFP.

Spathi - slave-shielded. Not much use Tongue

Androsynth - GONE. There goes the 2nd strongest (or at least most capable) Hierarchy race. Bummer.

VUX - stronger than during the first war. These guys could actually help out the Kzer-Za... except that ZEX isn't around to pull it off successfully. If the VUX don't have someone around with actual knowledge of warfare, they're likely doomed.

Mycon - the Syreen got them good. Too good. They don't seem to be in much of a shape to stop a Yehat/Pkunk incursion. And if the Mycon see that the Kzer-Za are weak, they may abandon them or even try to defect into the Alliance (the new "Un-Voidable Non")

Kohr-Ah - not exactly a part of the Hierarchy... but they are the only race that can actually put up a decent fight against Chmmr & co. They aren't in good shape however:
1.before they came to this quadrant, they annihilated the Burvixese and the Gg. The Burvix supposedly didn't like flying, so they probably didn't have much of a fleet. The Gg, however, are a mystery... they may have inflicted at least minor casualties against the Kohr-Ah.
2. Doctrinal war. The Kzer-Za, even in their weakened state, probably caused a LOT of damage to the Kohr-Ah fleet.
3. Utwig & Supox offensive. They delayed the Death March for a year, implying at least moderate damage to the Kohr-Ah.

Also, there's no telling how the Sa-Matra's destruction and the Neo-Dnyarri's appearance affected both of the Ur-Quan subspecies psychologically.

Short summary:

Alliance:
1 very strong race (Chmmr)
1 strong race (Yehat/Pkunk)
2 moderate races (Utwig, Orz?)
5 weak races (Earthling, Syreen, Supox, Zoq-Fot-Pik, Arilou?)

+ high morale?
+ Melnorme technology!
- many races are too weak to attack the Hierarchy

Hierarchy: ( + Kohr-Ah)
1 strong race (Kohr-Ah)
2 moderate races (Kzer-Za, VUX)
2 weak races (Mycon, Umgah?)

+ they still control a significant amount of territory
- psychological impact of the Sa-Matra's destruction & Neo-Dnyarri -> this might prove to be positive if the Kohr-Ah decide to ally with the Hierarchy
- major damage done to most Hierarchy races


The balance of power has changed... in favor of the Alliance.


Whew, that took long! Shocked
That's my take on it... so it may easily be inaccurate Grin
« Last Edit: February 22, 2009, 12:53:44 pm by SuddenDeath » Logged
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Re: How does the New Alliance win the war?
« Reply #13 on: February 22, 2009, 09:19:07 am »

"How does the New Alliance win the war?"

Play the sequel and find out!  Grin

I agree there's a problem with a vision of the new alliance owning the Ur-Quan in a few short weeks--namely we don't really know the size of the Ur-Quan fleet, post-Sa-Matra destruction. We don't know if they're allied with the Kohr-Ah, if they're in a civil war or what. I agree it would not necessarily be easy to tackle them. I think the creators were going for a neatly wrapped up happy ending at the end of SC2, and I imagine not thinking too expectantly of a sequel.

I think too many of you are making assumptions that aren't necessarily valid about what *must* happen, and are instead using your own imaginations to imagine an outcome. E.g. the decisions about what Earthlings would do about building cruisers under the shield or not is based on what kind of society they would have following the slave shielding, which is dependent on PR3&FF to decide pretty much. We also don't know in detail how Vux society operates. We don't know what their reasons might be for going one way or another. They might have an upper class that wants to retain power, or they might fear total annihilation by the Ur-Quan. Again, this is dependent on the size of the Ur-Quan fleet after the Sa-Matra's destruction which is unknown and can only be resolved by an authorial decision on the matter.

Other factors, such as the Arilou's participation are unknown, because their general desire for humanity is unknown, which was the reason they joined the first war and probably would be a large concern in the second.
As for the Orz, they seem happy to join the alliance but their ultimate ambitions are unknown.

What happened to the Ur-Quan and the Ur-Quan's reaction cannot be surely determined from the evidence here. And I think it's reasonable to say that, like a lot of details in SC2, the game doesn't make total sense and can't be reliably drawn upon for inference in a lot of situations. Is it even conceivable that there was a quick Hierarchy defeat? It depends on too many factors that ultimately the authors will have to resolve.
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Re: How does the New Alliance win the war?
« Reply #14 on: February 22, 2009, 11:35:08 am »

I think too many of you are making assumptions that aren't necessarily valid about what *must* happen, and are instead using your own imaginations to imagine an outcome.

Well, we're just speculating. It's not what must happen, but what might happen given what we know about the game universe. Look at the words SuddenDeath used in the first and last lines of his impressive post.

The Chmmr building a massive fleet under the slave-shield seems pretty necessary for an Alliance win though.

I agree that we need TfB to tell us what really happened, but I'm beginning to wonder if we'll ever see that day. Undecided
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