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Topic: Cognitive Biases (Read 14749 times)
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Death 999
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The opposite problem on high probabilities is more common. People are much more overconfident on likely things than they are underconfident.
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Zanthius
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The opposite problem on high probabilities is more common. People are much more overconfident on likely things than they are underconfident.
This isn't just my opinion. This is based upon tons of research by Daniel Kahneman and various other people. Anyhow, he wrote that people tend to either ignore the problem completely, or they tend to overvalue the problem if they affirm it at all. And there are lots of examples; like paying for expensive insurances, being scared of flying, or being scared of terrorists.
Here is a wikipedia article about the "Certainty effect": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certainty_effect
You can also read more abot it here: https://sites.google.com/site/skepticalmedicine//poor-decisions-and-prospect-theory
And here is the original publication by Kahneman and Tversky: https://www.uzh.ch/cmsssl/suz/dam/jcr:ffffffff-fad3-547b-ffff-ffffe54d58af/10.18_kahneman_tversky_81.pdf
I think what you are refering to might be the pseudocertainty effect, which is to completely ignore the element of uncertainity: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudocertainty_effect
I kinda agree with you that this is highly prevalent, but people don't necessarily need to feel certain about probable things. They can also feel certain about rather unlikely scenarios, such as is given in many religions. I am definately going to write more about the pseudocertainty effect.
I also found this bias which is closley linked to this:
The neglect of probability, a type of cognitive bias, is the tendency to disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty and is one simple way in which people regularly violate the normative rules for decision making. Small risks are typically either neglected entirely or hugely overrated. The continuum between the extremes is ignored. The term probability neglect was coined by Cass Sunstein.[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neglect_of_probability
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« Last Edit: January 25, 2018, 08:25:31 pm by Zanthius »
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Death 999
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For example, Black Lives Matter was somehow taken to mean that white lives don't. wtf no.
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Death 999
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It's still a massive stretch.
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